Delegating Decision Making to AI Tools – Choices and Consequences*

Sometimes when I hear about Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools it seems like it is all about the technical details of the model and the data, which is certainly very important. This post is about another important aspect: the operating model in which the AI tool will operate.

There are many aspects of such an operating model.  Some are practical, such as ensuring that the tools integrate with other parts of the business.   In this post, I am focusing on the delegation of decision making to the AI tool – the choices that exist in most cases and the implications for the control environment.  These are summarised in the figure below.

At one extreme of the delegation of decision making, you have AI tools that operate independently of human intervention.  An example is algorithmic trading or an automated trading system which trade without any human intervention to use the speed and data processing advantages that computers have over a human trader.  Interestingly, this also represents one of the few prescriptive examples of PRA intervention where it requires that a human has the possibility of stopping the trading system.^[1]

At the other end of the spectrum, there are AI tools used by experts in a professional environment.  For example, actuaries might use machine learning techniques to undertake experience analysis and support reserving work.

Between these two examples, you have AI tools that provide a forecast or recommendation for consideration by an analyst.  For example, the AI tool could provide a credit rating that validates a rating derived using more traditional methods.

Another middle of the road alternative is ‘management by exception’.  This means that the AI tools have a degree of autonomy to operate within a ‘norm’, which is inferred from historical data.  Cases that are outside the norm are then referred to an analyst for consideration to improve and verify the predictions. 

These are business choices and in turn have implications for the development process of AI tools.   You would expect controls around data and model documentation in all cases.  But broadly speaking you would also expect a tighter control and a more intense validation for AI tools that operate more independently of human intervention.  This includes the depth of model’s understanding, including:

• explainability – why did the model do that;
• transparency – how does the model work;
• the impact on customers – e.g., the difference between Netflix recommendations and credit card underwriting.

The choices of operating model also have important implications for staff training.  AI tools operated by staff that have not been involved in its development must be trained to the appropriate level to ensure that the AI tool operates effectively.  For example, where ‘management by exception’ is adopted, staff would need the appropriate knowledge and skills to deal with the exceptions.

There are important choices for the operating model into which AI tools are deployed.  These choices have risk management and control implications and these choices may change over time.  An AI tool might start operating in an advisory capacity.  As trust in the AI tool increases then the delegated decision making can be increased.

These implications and choices should be considered as part of the model design.

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*  This post is based on my contribution to a virtual panel discussion organised by ActuarTech on AI Governance & Risk Management.

[1] Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), Algorithmic trading, Supervisory Statement, 5/18, June 2018.

3+1 Types of Digital Transformations and How to Prioritize Them

A former insurance CEO once said that if you want to understand risk in financial services, you should start by looking at the products you are offering. I have been exploring how incumbents in financial services, and specifically risk management, should change to embrace FinTech. Inevitably then the subject of ‘digital transformation’ comes up. I have been speaking with various colleagues and friends recently and I realised that there are rather different forms of digital transformations with different implications for risk management and the business.  Here is my take on the various types. 

1.       Data-driven

Someone in the business takes the initiative and starts collating, curating and using the many data sources in the business to address specific analytical issues and enhance the quality of decision making.  This represents a bottom-up transformation with potential transformational features. 

In this case, buy-in is unlikely to be an issue. The main risk management challenge may arise from the scaling up of this initiative. For example, scaling up may involve using external data rather than internal data or bringing new technology to store the data, e.g. a data lake, which needs to be integrated into existing systems. It is also important that the consideration of analytical issues in the business factors in the need to maintain (and enhance, where necessary) an understanding of the risk profile of the business. For example, if additional data allows the business to modify its underwriting approach in a significant way, you should also consider how the (different) exposures would be monitored. There are a couple of examples here.

2.       Enhancing Customer Journeys 

This can be about how customers are serviced, given their existing journeys, and might include enhancing the front-end applications or rolling out new IT equipment to service customers. Alternatively, the transformation may be about changing or enhancing aspects of customer journeys. This might include, for example, introducing chat-bots as part of customer journeys (e.g. claims management) or applying an artificial intelligence-based tool to a specific process (e.g. underwriting).

This type of transformation has become the most visible form of digital transformation thanks to the various accelerators that incumbents in financial services have created. The challenge of buy-in is typically addressed by specifying that the accelerator should partner external providers with business leaders for whom the technology may be relevant. The impact on the risk profile of the business is also dependent on the specific transformation and should be considered from the outset. 

3.       IT-enabler

There are cases where the legacy systems become the main challenge and where the adoption of cloud-based services can be part of the answer. There are several approaches here, ranging from incremental steps to a ‘big-bang’ approach. One interesting idea is focusing on reducing the functionality of the legacy system and replicating that outside using new technology. 

These transformations may be motivated by concerns about operational resilience in the short term but might also support the transformations outlined above and enable more effective risk management. 

4.       Digital ‘Non-transformation’

This involves applying new technologies in the context of a new product line where there is no transformation as such. This clearly avoids the transformation in the short term but it can also provide the business with the means to build confidence in specific technologies (AI, blockchain) and the capability to execute and bring on board new technologies.

These types of digital transformations are not mutually exclusive, but it is important to be clear that they are different. Equally, they are not substitutes for each other and the real challenge is prioritising between them. This will inevitably vary between businesses, though I believe that there are standard considerations shaping the priorities such as the need to change the culture in order to mobilize the business for the digital era and the state of the core IT infrastructure, including the need to leverage technology as an enabler.  

What do you think about these categories? 

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Risk Management as Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence and FinTech

During 2018, I wrote several posts about FinTech, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and risk management.  I was kindly invited to present to the Network of Consulting Actuaries, I chose to use this opportunity to consolidate my views on the subject.  

There were several ideas flowing through my mind.

Firstly, informal evidence suggests that, for all the hype, FinTech and AI have not yet become mainstream in insurance or in financial services more generally.

Secondly, the largest business transformation arising from FinTech and AI is the adoption of these technologies by incumbents.  Indeed, I explored this in the context of banking through the group project at the Oxford FinTech Programme I completed in December 2018.

Thirdly, someone who works for a multinational insurer made the observation during an InsurTech event in London that as a regulated entity, the insurer has responsibilities and obligations towards their customers and must follow due process before they roll out new technologies.  There was a hint of an apology in this observation to the nimble start-ups in the audience.

Putting all these thoughts together led me to see the main challenge to the adoption of FinTech by incumbents as governance, including how risk management is applied in practice.  If the aim of risk management is to ‘protect’ or block, then the incumbent does not have an obvious lever to support the introduction of AI tools and FinTech.  

If, on the other hand, the aim of risk management is perceived as to ‘protect and enable’, then risk management can be part of the solution.  Risk management can lead to the creation of necessary infrastructure to ensure that AI tools achieve their transformational potential.  This includes articulating a vision of how a control framework should be leveraged, considering the impact of FinTech and AI on risk management frameworks, focusing on explainable AI, and articulating the implications for the target operating model.  This will facilitate incumbents’ adoption of FinTech and AI.  

Take a look at the presentation I gave (here) for a more detailed articulation of these points.

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